A Decision Theoretic Model for Standard Setting and Regulation

This paper presents a decision theoretic model which was developed to aid regulatory agencies in standard setting and regulation tasks. The one stage three decision maker model encompasses the decision making of a regulator, a developer, and an impactee unit. Each decision unit is assumed to follow a basic decision model, which is a combination of a probability model, a difference value judgment model, and an expected utility model. The developer unit is linked to the regulator unit through possible detections of violations of a regulation and sanctions. The impactee unit is linked to the developer unit through pollution generating events stemming from the developer's actions, and the subsequent damages which may result from pollution. This basic regulation model is then specified to safety and emission standard setting. Central in these specifications is a signal detection model which characterizes the uncertainty with which the regulator will detect or miss violations of his regulation. A multistage conditional probability model links the developer's actions, pollution generating events, amounts of pollutants, and possible effects on impactees

Modelling Standard Setting Decisions: An Illustrative Application to Chronic Oil Discharges

This research memorandum presents an illustrative application of a three decision maker, one stage decision model to the problem of setting chronic oil discharge standards. It is the third paper in a series dealing with decision models and their applications to standard setting. The first paper (IIASA, RM-78-5) describes the problematique of oil discharge standard setting faced by the UK and Norwegian governments with the growing oil development in the North Sea. The second paper (IIASA, RM-78-7) provides the formal background of a decision theoretic model which was developed to aid regulatory agencies in standard setting tasks. The present paper is a first attempt to apply this model to a real world standard setting case. The paper took the UK standard setting problem as it arose in 1975 as its starting point. It first describes the regulation problem in terms of sources, amounts, and effects of chronic oil discharges from North Sea production platforms. Then it presents a three decision maker, one stage decision model for standard setting which encompasses the decision making of a regulator unit, a developer unit, and an impactee unit. The decision making of the developer unit is thought as being influenced by a standard through the possibility of detections of violations of the standard and subsequent sanctions. The decision making of the impactee unit is influenced by the operation and treatment decision of the developer unit. Each decision unit is modelled by a decision theoretic model including quantifications of uncertainties and values, determining optimal treatment responses to regulation alternatives, and utilities for all three units as a function of standards. The application of the model is illustrative in character. Although some of the data used in the model were collected during two field studies in the UK and Norway, many quantifications are still hypothetical in the sense that they are not real assessments by the experts and decision makers, but rather reflect the author's perceptions of the decision maker's and expert's opinions and evaluations. Nevertheless the model results provide some basic insights in the standard setting problem for chronic oil discharges

Setting Standards for Chronic Oil Discharges in the North Sea

Public attention has frequently been directed to the large accidental oil spills connected with tanker groundings or breakups and platform blowouts. The operational oil discharges connected with offshore production platforms could, however, have equally severe effects in the offshore environment because the pollution occurs day after day as long as the activities that produce it continue to operate. This study is concerned with such discharges in the North Sea. The study focused on the central actors involved in the standard-setting process for operational or chronic discharges. Each key actor was interviewed in depth to determine their perceptions of the problem, the role of other actors, the alternatives considered and the interactions among actors. This decision-making complex thus includes a variety of decision-making units with varying abilities to influence the outcomes of the standards. Regulator, developer and environmental expert actors formed the basic focus for this effort. The objectives of the regulators and developers are described along with the alternative regulations, treatments and uses of the environment that are considered. Then a comparison and evaluation of the decision process by which Norwegian and U.K. regulators arrived at discharge standards is made. Major findings include the near similarity of the standards set even though the approaches to such standards are perceived to be quite different in each country. Another finding is that entrepreneurial endeavor for oil discharge treatment equipment is a key parameter in deciding on standards since both countries must rely on such effort for what is available. Lack of information on the effects of oil in the sea is another finding along with a minimal role for environmental quality factors in setting standards. Such findings make it difficult to trace trade-offs in the selection process for standard setting. Finally, some suggestions for improvements in this process are noted

A Dynamic Model for Setting Railway Noise Standards

This paper describes the application of a multistage game theoretical model to setting noise standards which is illustrated by the case of trains. The problem was structured to match the decision problem which the Environment Agency faced when setting standards for Shinkansen trains. The model considers three players: the regulator (environment agency), the producer (railway corporation), and the impactees (residents along the railway line who suffer from noise). The game has seven stages characterized by the actions of the impactees ranging from petitions to legal litigation. The final stages are the outcomes of a possible lawsuit. The case is either won by the producer or the impactees, or a compromise is reached. Transition probabilities between stages are considered parameters of the game. They depend mainly on the noise level the impactees consider acceptable, the standard set by the regulator, and the actual level of noise emitted. Only the regulator and the producer are active players in the sense that they have a set of choices characterized as standard levels (regulator) and noise protection measures (producer). The impactees are modeled as a response function. Several solutions according to a hierarchical solution concept of the game are derived. In particular, conditions are given under which the regulator or the producer would prefer a compromise solution to awaiting the outcome of the court case. These conditions can be expressed directly as functions of noise levels and transition probabilities, given some simple assumptions about the shape of the utility functions of the regulator and the producer

Risk, Security and Robust Solutions

The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-theoretic approach to security management of uncertain multi-agent systems. Security is defined as the ability to deal with intentional and unintentional threats generated by agents. The main concern of the paper is the protection of public goods from these threats allowing explicit treatment of inherent uncertainties and robust security management solutions. The paper shows that robust solutions can be properly designed by new stochastic optimization tools applicable for multicriteria problems with uncertain probability distributions and multivariate extreme events

Regional Planning, Environmental Management, and Modeling in the Kinki Region of Japan: A Case Study

The purpose of this study is to describe and assess the present policy making on long term regional development plans and environmental management systems in the Kinki area of Japan as a typical example of a highly developed industrialized region with a full range of environmental problems. The study follows an analytical framework developed at IIASA in the course of case studies of large scale development programs. Three aspects of regional policy making are examined: comprehensive development plans, environmental management, and the role of models and computer applications in regional planning and management. Emphasis was put on attempts to integrate interprefectural and national-prefectural planning and decision making. Organizational interlinkages, comprehensive plans, and joint budgets are seen as the main mechanisms for such integration. The study findings indicate that while the national-prefectural integration seems to work well with a clear separation of functions, multiple interrelations of organizations, and a strong centrally controlled budget, the interprefectural integration lags behind. In spite of many common problems in the Kinki area there exists no policy formation body acting from within the region, and joint plans, models, or shared budgets are more an exception than the rule

Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis

This paper explores the effectiveness of several methods to reduce the overconfidence bias when eliciting continuous probability distributions in the context of multicriteria decision analysis. We examine the effectiveness of using a fixed value method (as opposed to the standard fixed probability method) and the use of counterfactuals and hypothetical bets to increase the range of the distributions and to correct possible median displacements. The results show that the betting procedure to correct the median is quite effective, but the methods to increase the range of estimates have only a have small, but positive effect

Procedures for the Establishment of Standards. Final Report. Vol.2

This final report summarizes two years of research on analyzing procedures for the establishment of standards. The research was sponsored by the Volkswagenwerk Foundation and jointly carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis at Laxenburg and the Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The final report is meant to be both a problem-oriented review of related work in the area of environmental standard setting and an executive summary of the main research done during the contract period. The following eleven technical papers (Volume II of the Final Report) are reference reports written to accompany Volume I. They describe the studies and findings performed under the contract in more detail, and they have been either published as IIASA Research Memoranda or as outside publications, or were especially written for this report. These technical reports are structured in four parts: (1) policy analyses of standard setting procedures; (2) decision and game theoretic models for standard setting; (3) applications of decision game theoretic models to specific standard setting problems; and (4) biological basis for standard setting

Is better nuclear weapon detection capability justified?

In this paper, we present a decision tree model for evaluation of the next generation radiation portal technology (Advanced Spectroscopic Portals or ASPs) to scan containers entering the United States non-intrusively against nuclear or radiological weapons. Advanced Spectroscopic Portals are compared against the current designs of portal monitors (plastic scintillators or PVTs). We consider five alternative deployment strategies: 1) Exclusive deployment of ASPs replacing all the PVTs currently deployed at U.S. ports of entry, 2) Sequential deployment of ASPs with PVTs installing ASPs in all secondary and some primary inspections areas, 3) Sequential deployment of ASPs with PVTs installing ASPs in only secondary inspections areas, 4) Exclusive deployment of PVTs, 5) Stop deployment of new portal monitors and continue inspections with the current capacity. The baseline solution recommends a hybrid strategy that supports the deployment of new designs of portal monitors for secondary inspections and current designs of portal monitors for primary inspections. However, this solution is found to be very sensitive to the probability of attack attempt, the type of weapon shipped through ports of entry, the probability of successful detonation, detection probabilities and the extra deterrence that each alternative may provide. We also illustrate that the list of most significant parameters depends heavily on the dollar equivalent of overall consequences and the probability of attack attempt. For low probability and low consequence scenarios, false alarm related parameters are found to have more significance. Our extensive exploratory analysis shows that for most parametric combinations, continued deployment of portal monitors is recommended. Exclusive deployment of ASPs is optimal under high risk scenarios. However, we also show that if ASPs fail to improve detection capability, then extra benefits they offer in reducing false alarms may not justify their mass deployment. © 2011 Berkeley Electronic Press. All rights reserved